📊 Deal News Canada Update – Sunday, October 12, 2025

Turkey’s cold, but Canada’s deal flow is colder. Can we turn policy turbulence and retail vacancy into a competitive edge—or will we just keep letting Spirit Halloween run the country?

Oct 12, 2025

🛰️ Macro Radar

Thanksgiving weekend is giving us more tryptophan than term sheets, but don’t nap on the signals: Ottawa’s Ukraine energy flirtation, a looming wildfire agency, and cross-border tariff chess are all setting the stage for Canada’s next big moves. If you’re waiting for a formal RFP, you’re already late to the carve-out party.

🇨🇦 National Deal Watch

Ottawa’s Ukraine Energy Play: Watch This Space

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s hotline to President Zelenskyy is more than just a photo op—Canada is doubling down on Ukraine’s energy grid, hinting at future mandates for homegrown infra, engineering, and cleantech. No contracts yet, but if you’re a mid-cap EPC or a cleantech roll-up, start prepping your “Ukraine resilience” pitch deck. The Coalition of the Willing could soon mean Canadian export credits and carve-outs.
Readout: PM Carney speaks with Zelenskyy
Globe coverage

National Wildfire Agency: Federal Roll-Up in the Making?

Ottawa’s trial balloon for a national wildfire agency is classic “watch the procurement pipeline.” If you’re in emergency response tech, logistics, or consulting, now’s the time to polish your dataroom—public-private partnerships and M&A are on the horizon.
The Globe and Mail: National Wildfire Agency

Honourable Mentions & Deal Ideas

Ontario’s Med School Residency Clampdown: Tighter rules for international grads could shift the talent pipeline for private clinics and medtech.
Globe: Ontario med school residency changes

🍁 Ontario & Québec Investments

Ontario & Québec’s deal tape is running on fumes this weekend—no new M&A, no fresh funding, just a retail real estate sideshow.

Spirit Halloween: The Only Tenant Left Standing

Spirit Halloween is swooping in to fill the void left by Hudson’s Bay’s collapse, taking over vacant retail units in Toronto and beyond. It’s a seasonal band-aid for landlords, but don’t mistake this for a solution. The “pop-up” model is a symptom, not a cure, for legacy retail failures. If you’re in retail roll-ups or distressed asset plays, vacancy arbitrage is alive and well—but it’s not a substitute for a real retail ecosystem.
Source

Deal Ideas: Who Should Be Shopping?

Private equity and REITs with dry powder should be eyeing these legacy retail carcasses for conversion—logistics, healthcare, data centres. The “seasonal tenant as stopgap” model is a short-term fix. If you’re waiting for a true anchor-tenant renaissance, you’ll be waiting longer than a Leafs fan for a Cup.

🌲 Western Canada Watch

Nuclear Ambitions—But Not the Kind You’re Thinking Of

Canada is eyeing nuclear reactors on the moon as part of NASA’s Artemis II mission. The real commercial angle? Alberta and Saskatchewan’s uranium and nuclear tech supply chains could get a lunar lift. No deal paper yet, but Western engineering is world-class in small modular reactors. Time to dust off your “space vertical” slide deck.
CBC News

🌊 Surf, Turf and Arctic

Yukon’s $7.6B Grid Play: Transmission Ambition, Capital Starvation

Yukon Development Corporation’s report touts a $7.6B/year economic boost if the territory links to B.C.’s grid. Still at the “report” stage, but for infra funds and pension-backed utilities, this is a heads-up to start lobbying Ottawa for federal backstops. If Canada doesn’t step up, expect U.S. capital to sniff around—again.
Source

Arctic Policy: Security Delays and Zoning Overhauls

Whitehorse is rewriting its zoning bylaw—a signal for land assembly, modular construction, and ESG-flavoured real estate funds. Meanwhile, Canada’s security strategy update is disrupted by the “shifting global picture.” Translation: more risk premiums, more reason for Canadian LPs to demand domestic resilience.
Source
Source

First Nations Funding Cutbacks: Impact Investing, Anyone?

Funding squeeze for First Nations youth programs after changes to Jordan’s Principle eligibility. It’s a flashing neon sign for impact investors and Indigenous partnerships: crisis teams are losing lifelines. If you’re a PE shop or family office with ESG mandates, consider direct partnerships or social impact bonds—waiting for Ottawa to fix this is not a winning bet.
Source

🌐 Cross-Border Connections

Deal Flow Outlook: U.S. Plastics Deficit, Canadian Energy Resilience

The U.S. plastics industry flipped from a trade surplus in 2023 to a $2.1B deficit in 2024. For Canadian processors and recyclers, this is roll-up grease—U.S. buyers may soon be looking north for supply chain stability.

Meanwhile, Canadian energy names like CNQ are being called out for their ability to weather tariffs and OPEC drama—expect more cross-border capital chasing “boring but bulletproof” Canadian dividend payers.
Plastics | Energy

Deal Flow Canada

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