Canada Deal News - Oct 23, 2025
Deal flow is up, multiples are holding for the right stories, and buyers are getting choosy—profitability and margin durability are back in the driver’s seat.
🇨🇦 National Deal Watch
Felix Health’s $53M raise puts profitability front and center: investors are rewarding digital health players who can scale before market headwinds hit. If you’re showing a profit in SaaS or healthtech, this is your comp for premium capital and leverage at the table. Read more
NACG’s $125M in 7.75% senior unsecured notes sets a clear cost-of-capital line for asset-heavy operators: debt is available, but it isn’t cheap. If you can support it, debt buys time and preserves equity, but the market’s not blinking on price. Read more
Polymarket’s rumored $15B round is a reminder: category-defining platforms can command nosebleed multiples, but regulatory risk is the wild card. Read more
Signal for founders: Profitability and margin story are your best negotiating chips. Debt is open but expensive. Strategic buyers want sticky, data-driven platforms. Would your numbers hold up if a buyer or lender called tomorrow?
🍁 Ontario & Québec Investments
Azimut Exploration just mapped a 1.8 km antimony-gold zone in James Bay—no deal yet, but this kind of resource expansion is classic prelude to new capital or JV interest. If you’re in mining, technical milestones like this reset your valuation narrative and attract fresh eyes. Read more
No fresh items today for hospitality, retail, or infrastructure—watch for disclosed lease rates, tenant wins, or funding rounds to benchmark your own value.
🌲 Western Canada Watch
West Fraser Timber’s Q3 net loss of US$204M (up from US$83M last year) puts margin pressure in the spotlight, as commodity swings and cost inflation are biting. Buyers will dig deep into your cost structure before paying up. Read more
Construction investment in BC is still rising, but “competitive tendering” means tighter margins for contractors. Capital is flowing, but pricing power is under pressure, so watch your backlog and margin trends. Read more
Domtar’s Skookumchuck mill racks up another $62,950 in environmental penalties—third hit this year. Recurring compliance issues erode negotiating leverage and can spook ESG-focused buyers or lenders. Read more
Owner takeaway: Margin durability and clean compliance records are swinging multiples. Stress-test your cost structure and risk profile before buyers do.
🌊 Surf, Turf and Arctic
Prairie Provident’s C$26.5M preferred equity raise and two-year debt extension is a real-time case study in buying runway—preferred equity shores up the balance sheet, while deferred interest and looser covenants buy breathing room. Nothing’s closed yet; founders should watch final terms for coupon rates and board rights. Read more
Benchmark: If you’re capital-intensive, this is how lenders and investors are pricing risk and structuring rescue capital. Don’t wait for distress—prep your capital stack early.
🌐 Cross-Border Connections
US and Canada are set to seal a trade deal at APEC—Canada gets steel export quotas in exchange for lower US tariffs. For metals and manufacturing, quotas may cap upside, but tariff relief could boost cash flow and cross-border M&A appetite. Read more
Carney targets doubling Canada’s non-US exports by 2035, aiming for $300B in new trade. Exporters with diversified customer bases could see premium multiples as policy and global demand align. Read more
Shawbrook’s $2.7B IPO and Monzo’s $6B private share sale prep are UK comps, but relevant for digital lenders and neobanks eyeing liquidity—public or private. Shawbrook | Monzo
Chroma Color’s buy of Ferco Color is a classic cross-border expansion—no price disclosed, but appetite is strong for specialty suppliers with West Coast reach. If you’ve got unique formulations or sticky customers, buyers are circling. Read more
Bottom line: Trade policy and strategic M&A are shaping cross-border valuations. How exposed are you to policy swings, and what makes your business a must-have for international buyers?
Sharpen your story, benchmark your numbers, and prep your capital stack—buyers and lenders are watching.