Canada Deal News - Oct 16 2025
This week’s deal flow reveals clear signals: premium valuations for recurring revenue, strategic buyers building positions, and specialized capital structures unlocking value. Are you prepping to defend your multiple or letting the market set your story?
🇨🇦 National Deal Watch
GFG Resources launches C$4M flow-through raise
GFG Resources is raising up to $4 million via flow-through shares—leveraging Canada’s unique tax-advantaged structure (source).
Valuation signal: Flow-throughs often price above market, showing how tax efficiency can lift early-stage resource valuations.
So what: Resource founders—are you using every capital-raising tool, or leaving value on the table?
🌲 Western Canada Watch
Calgary set to lead national economic growth in 2026 The Conference Board of Canada forecasts Calgary will top national growth next year (source).
Valuation signal: Local GDP tailwinds support higher revenue and margin forecasts—fuel for premium multiples. Prep now to ride the macro wave; early planning gives you more leverage with buyers and investors.
Customer satisfaction gap widens between big banks and midsized lenders J.D. Power finds smaller banks are outpacing the Big Five in customer satisfaction (source). Valuation signal: Higher satisfaction = stickier revenue and justifies a premium multiple for midsized lenders and fintechs. Track and showcase customer loyalty—it’s as persuasive as EBITDA in valuation talks.
Softwood lumber sector awaits federal relief Minister Mélanie Joly promises relief for tariff-hit lumber companies (source, source). Valuation signal: Relief could stabilize margins and restore buyer confidence, but uncertainty discounts persist until details are clear.
Scenario-plan for both best- and worst-case outcomes as you monitor the relief package.
Bottom line: Economic momentum, customer loyalty, and sector policy shifts drive valuation. Map your business against these signals and prep early to control your story.
🌊 Surf, Turf and Arctic
S&P Global acquires With Intelligence for $1.8B S&P Global’s $1.8B buy of With Intelligence is a rare, clean comp in business intelligence/data (source). - Valuation signal: Buyers pay up for sticky, recurring revenue and data moats.
If you’re in SaaS or data, clarify your moat and identify logical acquirers.
Elle, MD Biotechnologies raises $100K from Invest Nova Scotia NS-based Elle, MD secures $100K equity from Invest Nova Scotia, matching a prior $100K from NBIF (source). - Valuation signal: $100K cheques set the seed-stage biotech benchmark in Atlantic Canada.
As a founder, consider sequencing public and private capital to maximize leverage and minimize cap table complexity.
Are you steering your own valuation story with real comps and capital moves—or letting buyers set the narrative?
🌐 Cross-Border Connections
Stellantis shifts $13B investment to U.S., Jeep Compass leaves Ontario Stellantis is investing $13B USD in U.S. manufacturing, moving Jeep Compass production out of Brampton, ON (source). - Valuation signal: Global players are rebalancing North American footprints—Canadian suppliers may face pressure on asset values and contracts.
If your revenue is tied to U.S.-anchored OEMs, re-benchmark your plant and contract values now.
U.S. policy and market uncertainty spook Canadian auto sector The Logic reports Stellantis’s U.S. pivot is rattling Canadian manufacturing (source). Valuation signal: Customer concentration and geopolitical risk can compress multiples for Canadian suppliers.
Diversify customer base and scenario-plan for U.S. policy shifts.
Ardian closes $20B infrastructure fund for Europe Ardian’s record $20B fund signals global appetite for infrastructure (source). Valuation signal: International capital is hunting for scalable, de-risked assets—including in Canada.
Position for cross-border capital and partnerships if you’re building in infrastructure, clean energy, or supply chain.
Private equity targets industrial tech: Hillenbrand acquired by Lone Star Funds Hillenbrand (parent to Coperion, Mold-Masters) is being acquired by Lone Star Funds (source). - Valuation signal: PE appetite remains strong for niche suppliers with global reach and sticky customers.
If you own a specialized manufacturing business, PE is still a viable exit path—especially if you’ve built cross-border scale.
That’s it for this morning! Follow us on X.com for valuation nuggets and deal memes all day long.