Canada Deal Flow News – 2025-11-07
Margin resilience and cash flow rule the valuation leaderboard—growth alone won’t cut it.
🇨🇦 National Deal Watch
Canada’s $6.4B G7 critical minerals push is public money, but it’s a magnet for private partners in mining tech and logistics. Resource founders: capital is flowing, but buyers will scrutinize margin and execution risk. Read more
Neighbourhood and Fisgard merged in an $800M deal, creating a national alt-lending giant. Tech plus distribution equals scale—and premium multiples. Fintech founders, this is your north star for strategic combos. Read more
Rockpoint Gas Storage’s IPO debut is already drawing strong take-or-pay contract uptake, tracking management’s 2027 projections. Predictable cash flow from these contracts is a classic lever for premium infrastructure multiples. If you’re in energy, this is your comp: contracted revenue trumps headline growth when prepping for a sale or recap. Watch for Rockpoint’s future contract disclosures to set the tone for midstream asset valuations. Read more
🍁 Ontario & Québec Investments
1Password cracks $400M USD ARR and is openly weighing an IPO. No multiple yet, but this is a prime SaaS comp: recurring revenue scale plus leadership depth is what buyers and markets want. Read more
Evergold just closed a $350K convertible debenture at 7.5% with CJ “Charlie” Greig, fueling DEM project drilling. Classic bridge play: convertible debt buys time and flexibility, keeping dilution in check. Resource and early-stage founders—this structure is still your friend when you need cash without setting a hard valuation. Read more
Boralex’s Q3: EBITDA and net earnings dip despite a 7% production jump, thanks to new projects. Margin pressure is the culprit—scaling up can squeeze profits and drag multiples. In renewables, growth is table stakes; margin durability is what buyers pay for. Read more
Spectral Medical is targeting a Q1 2026 FDA PMA submission after positive sepsis therapy results. No new raise yet, but regulatory milestones like this often trigger investor and buyer interest. Life sciences founders: time your raise or exit around these catalysts for max leverage. Read more
Lightspeed’s shares jumped nearly 10% after a revenue beat and upgraded forecast—15% YoY growth and margin resilience are driving multiples, not just topline. Read more
Maple’s acquisition of Beyond ADHD is a strategic tuck-in, expanding its virtual mental health reach. Digital health buyers are chasing platforms with sticky, specialized patient bases. Read more
🌲 Western Canada Watch
Ovintiv’s deeper Canada push is part of a $40B oilpatch consolidation wave and the signal is clear: strategic buyers are paying for scale and margin leverage. If you’re mid-market in energy, now’s the time to stress-test your margins and customer mix before the next M&A surge. Read more
Nutrien pegs its phosphate division at US$2.4B, giving ag and mining operators a rare division-level comp. Ask yourself: what’s your business—or business unit—worth on a standalone basis? Read more
Ensign Energy posted a Q3 loss and 5% revenue drop—reminder that not every oilfield services player is catching the M&A tailwind. Shrinking margins and topline will get priced in fast. If you’re in services, now’s the time to shore up or consider your exit. Read more
CNRL’s Q3 output hit a record 1.62M boe/d, powered by three recent acquisitions—no deal terms, but the topline leap is a textbook bolt-on play. Integration and margin follow-through will set the real comp. Read more
🌊 Surf, Turf and Arctic
🌐 Cross-Border Connections
WSP Global warns a prolonged U.S. shutdown could dent earnings—so far “minimal,” but risk is rising. If your revenue rides on government contracts, customer concentration just became a valuation flashpoint. Read more
KKR’s Global Atlantic is backing PT Chandra Asri Pacific’s $1B Esso Singapore buy with a $750M loan—insurance capital betting on recurring cash flow and asset durability. For asset-heavy operators, this is proof: big lenders still write cheques for stable, cash-generative plays. Read more
Blackstone and TPG are eyeing private credit to finance $12.25B of their $18.3B Hologic buyout. Private lenders are plugging gaps where banks hesitate, offering speed and flexibility—at a price. If you’re prepping for a recap or sale, track who’s lending and what it’ll cost you. Read more
Recurring revenue, margin strength, and strategic focus are what buyers and investors are pricing in—across sectors and borders. If you’re prepping for a raise or exit, benchmark your story against these signals, not just the headlines.