Canada Deal Flow News – 2025-11-05
Margin muscle and strategic moves set today’s valuation tone.
🇨🇦 National Deal Watch
Cargojet and Propel Holdings tanked after Q3 misses, flashing a warning to founders: small-cap comps can nosedive on a single quarter. Margin resilience and recurring revenue are your best defense when public markets get twitchy. Read more
Ovintiv’s $3.8B buyout of NuVista sets a new Montney comp—buyers are still writing big cheques for margin-resilient, growth-ready assets with integration upside. If you’re a mid-cap E&P, this is your fresh valuation benchmark.
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CGI posted 9.7% revenue growth and hiked its dividend 13%. For tech founders, this is the comp: buyers want steady growth and cash flow, not just top-line sizzle. Read more
Why it matters:
Earnings volatility can reset your valuation overnight. Advisory firm mergers change who’s at the table—prep early to keep leverage.
🍁 Ontario & Québec Investments
Beacon raised $250M USD Series B to buy and equip Main Street businesses with AI—backed by Instacart and Sequoia alums. Profitable, tech-light firms are suddenly hot targets for AI-driven rollups. Read more
Supremex’s Q3 results are out—no headline numbers, but as a TSX-listed packaging peer, their filings set the tone for private company multiples. If you’re in manufacturing or B2B packaging, track these comps for clues on what buyers value: margin, scale, and recurring revenue.
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Profitual’s $10K “no-pitch” competition puts the spotlight on financial models, not decks. If your numbers can’t win a diligence-first contest, your valuation narrative won’t hold up.
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$3.2M: DeFi Technologies’ Alpha desk booked a $3.2M gain on a single arbitrage trade—profit to be realized over three years if SOL holds. Not an equity raise, but a rare window into trading desk cash flow in Ontario fintech. For founders: one-off trading wins can juice your narrative, but buyers will scrutinize margin durability. Read more
$30M USD: Montréal’s Flare raised fresh capital to fuel global cybersecurity expansion and M&A. Growth-stage SaaS with international ambition and margin resilience is still drawing meaningful rounds, even as tech multiples wobble. Read more
Why it matters:
Macro swings are reshaping valuations—public sector cuts, demand shocks, and strategic buyer appetite are the new benchmarks. Are you insulated, or exposed?
🌲 Western Canada Watch
Rockpoint Gas Storage’s post-IPO surge: strong take-or-pay contract uptake is tracking to 2027+ forecasts, signaling that stable, long-term deals can drive higher multiples and attract fresh capital. Watch how these contracts hit future earnings.
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TC Energy’s $5B+ in new projects and extended outlook to 2028 lock in future cash flow and capital deployment. This is what premium valuations look like in capital-intensive sectors: project pipeline, margin visibility, and growth certainty. If you’re in midstream or energy tech, ask yourself—can you show this level of forward clarity?
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BMI Group acquired the Prince Albert Pulp Mill in Saskatchewan, betting on industrial turnaround and asset revitalization. Buyers are still hunting for operational upside in legacy sectors. Read more
Creekstone Energy’s Series B (led by Trident Ridge, Pelion) will fund a 10-GW “AI Gigasite” in Utah. The comp: capital is chasing energy-data-AI hybrids, not just old-school generation. Show a credible path to scale, and funding follows. Read more
C$1.4M: Cybeats Technologies snagged a non-brokered private placement from U.S. microcap fund IFCM, issuing shares plus warrants. Cross-border microcap capital is still flowing for supply-chain security plays, but warrants signal investors want extra upside for risk. If you’re prepping a raise, watch who’s funding your peers—and how. Read more
15% revenue growth: Lightspeed’s Q2 numbers—$319M revenue, 42% gross margin, $25.5M operating cash flow—set a fresh SaaS benchmark for scale and margin resilience. If you’re in SaaS or payments, these are the comps buyers are using for 2026. Read more
1911 Gold’s failed private placement after TSX Venture Exchange denial is a regulatory gut-check. Even well-capitalized firms can get tripped up—timing and certainty matter for valuation and deal momentum. Read more
Why it matters:
Margin expansion and visible growth drive valuation. If you’re prepping for a raise or sale, your margin story is your strongest pitch.
🌊 Surf, Turf and Arctic
Monarch Collective grabbed 38% of FC Viktoria Berlin Women—its first Euro sports play. Partial-stake deals are back, and international buyers are hunting for growth, not just trophies. Read more
Appili Therapeutics is prepping a non-brokered private placement—no terms yet, but watch for dilution and insider signals. Life sciences founders: private rounds reveal who really has leverage when capital tightens. Read more
Holland College faces a $4M revenue hit as federal policy slashes international enrolment. Real-world proof: regulatory shocks can crater topline and EBITDA overnight. If you’re in education or regulated sectors, stress-test your forecasts for policy risk.
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No Frills expands in Charlottetown—Loblaw’s discount banner plants a flag in PEI, signaling that national chains are still chasing growth in secondary cities. Local operators: watch how new entrants impact lease rates and brand premiums.
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A Halifax daycare operator is expanding to offset a recent closure—no financials, but in supply-constrained sectors, timing expansion can boost negotiating power and multiples. Read more
Why it matters:
Deal structure and buyer profile matter as much as multiples. Would a cross-border or strategic buyer pay more for a minority stake? Are you controlling the narrative?
🌐 Cross-Border Connections
BDO is close to merging its UK and Irish arms, signaling more consolidation in mid-market advisory. Expect new buyer pools and shifting diligence for Canadian firms with cross-border ambitions. Read more
Unilever aims to spin off Magnum ice cream by December 6. Spin-offs can unlock value and attract new buyers—founders with diversified ops, take note: sometimes the parts are worth more than the whole. Read more
UPS closed its buyout of Andlauer Healthcare, a Canadian cold-chain logistics specialist. No price disclosed, but global strategics are still paying up for niche, defensible assets in regulated sectors. If you’re in logistics or healthcare supply, ask: what moat would make a cross-border buyer chase you? Read more
Dell’s Boomi goes private in a $4B all-cash carve-out—TPG and Francisco Partners are betting on margin expansion and growth outside Dell. For SaaS and integration tech founders, this is a rare, disclosed comp for mature, infrastructure-heavy platforms. Read more
$190M: Australia’s Locksley drew U.S. EXIM Bank interest for its California antimony project, highlighting how government-backed debt can tilt the playing field for capital-intensive resource bets. Canadian operators: scan for non-dilutive capital and public-private deals—these set the bar for your next raise. Read more
Why it matters:
Big-ticket mergers and carve-outs are setting the pace for cross-border deals. Benchmark your next move against these comps—timing and structure are everything.
Capital is chasing Canadian companies with margin durability, sector focus, and turnaround potential. Benchmark your story: are you showing buyers the growth, resilience, or transformation they’ll pay for?
Reminder:
If your deal, raise, or expansion isn’t making headlines, benchmark against these comps and ask: what would make a strategic or government buyer set your floor?