📈 Canada Deal Flow News - 2025-10-31

Valuations hinge on margin, regulatory wins, and who’s actually writing cheques.

🇨🇦 National Deal Watch

MEG Energy’s $Cenovus$ deal hits pause—shareholder vote delayed a week after a late regulatory curveball. No new terms, but closing certainty just took a hit. If you’re eyeing an exit, bake in regulatory risk and timeline slippage. Read more

Private equity dealmaking smashed a $310B record in Q3, but fundraising lags. Appetite is real, but dry powder isn’t endless—if you’re prepping a raise, lead with margin durability and sticky customers. Read more

Sequoia just locked in $950M for new early-stage funds. U.S.-centric, but a clear comp: global VCs still want high-growth, defensible businesses—just expect a tougher pitch room. Read more

Carney’s government is pivoting hard to Asia, deepening trade ties with Singapore after similar announcements with other Asian-Pacific countries. Not a direct deal, but a clear signal: non-U.S. buyers and new incentives could soon drive up multiples for globally-minded Canadian firms. Read more

🍁 Ontario & Québec Investments

Shopify’s AI-driven support rollout is rattling merchants, sparking churn risk and revenue questions. Founders: platform pivots can shake customer retention and compress multiples—watch Shopify’s churn and satisfaction for early signals. Read more

Magna International posts $305M Q3 profit—down YoY, but sales are up. Margin pressure is real, but demand holds. For founders, margin swings and customer mix matter more than topline growth when buyers price your business. Read more

BDC backs women-led Magnum with a $50M search fund—real capital for operator-led buyouts, not just VC rounds. Succession deals are heating up; watch how BDC’s terms shape future multiples. Read more

AtkinsRéalis just landed a 15-year nuclear decommissioning framework with Sellafield Ltd.—no contract value disclosed, but this is sticky, recurring revenue that props up multiples in engineering and infra. Long-term mandates like this are gold for cash flow and exit options. Read more

George Brown College rebrands as George Brown Polytechnic and launches a Master of Construction Management. No capital raise, but the pivot to higher-value credentials mirrors moves by Seneca and Humber—expect enrolment bumps, new partners, and premium pricing. Read more

🌲 Western Canada Watch

AltaGas wins 25-year export licenses for propane and butane. Read more They are also green-lighting two new Canadian midstream projects—Dimsdale storage and Ridley Island export. FIDs mean real capital is moving; watch for follow-on M&A or partnerships. Read more

$100M Richmond project denied financing amid Indigenous title uncertainty. The bank disputes the reason, but the signal is clear: regulatory and land clarity are now gating items for deals and debt in B.C. Read more

Edge Copper (TSXV: EDCU) just stacked its C-suite with a new COO and VP, classic pre-deal moves in mining. These hires often foreshadow a financing or JV—watch for follow-on capital or a sale. Read more

🌊 Surf, Turf and Arctic

Export Development Canada’s $10M credit to Maritime Launch Services puts public money behind a pre-revenue, asset-light space startup. Non-dilutive capital is out there, but expect scrutiny—public backers want a clear path to revenue. Read more

CornerBrook Pulp and Paper halts production due to low water levels—no deal, but a sharp reminder: operational shocks can crater TTM EBITDA and spook buyers. Stress-test your downside before someone else does. Read more

🌐 Cross-Border Connections

SECURE Waste pivots south, sending 95% of recycled scrap to the U.S.—margin and demand are better stateside. If your market softens, can you follow the money? Read more

🧭 Other Deal Highlights Across Canada

Allied Properties REIT’s unit price drops 17% after warning of a distribution cut—leverage and payout policy can swing value fast, especially in shaky sectors. Stress-test your capital stack now. Read more

Solink doubles Ottawa HQ, targets 1,000 staff by 2030—classic prelude to a major raise or exit. B2B SaaS and security tech founders: expansion signals like this often precede valuation step-changes. Read more

Yangibana JV and Ucore Rare Metals inked a non-binding deal for up to 37,000 t/y of rare earth concentrate into the U.S.—long-term offtakes like this de-risk cash flow and can anchor project financing or M&A. Read more

Waabi’s self-driving tech lands in Volvo’s new autonomous truck—OEM integration is a valuation rocket, even if terms are private. Deeptech founders: major customer wins move your multiple more than hype. Read more

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Founders: Margin, regulatory clarity, and customer wins are driving value—are you steering your own comp, or letting the market write it for you?