đ Canada Deal Flow News â 2025-10-28
Big cheques chase scale, but only margin and narrative win the premium.
đ¨đŚ National Deal Watch
$80B from Westinghouse, Cameco, Brookfield, and the U.S. government is flooding into North American nuclearâno disclosed multiples, but the sheer scale sets a new bar for energy asset valuations and signals deep-pocketed buyers want resilient, strategic infrastructure. Read more
Wealthsimpleâs $750M equity round ($10B valuation, led by Dragoneer, GIC, CPP) is the new fintech comp: scale and sticky revenue still command premiums, even as rounds get leaner. Read more
Swedish AI startup Grasp lands $7M Series A (Octopus Ventures, Yanno Capital) to automate banking and consulting workflows. For Canadian AI and fintech founders: vertical automation with clear ROI is still drawing early-stage cheques. Read more
đ Ontario & QuĂŠbec Investments
The only signal: Toronto new condo sales cratered to record lowsâjust 28 units sold in September, with GTA volume âworse than the 1990s.â Prices are flat, but liquidity is gone. If youâre in real estate or proptech, donât expect a premium until buyers return. Read more
What to watch: Pointe-Claireâs election is heating up over development, but no new project or land valuation data yet. If pro-development wins, expect future real estate and construction deal flow. Read more
đ˛ Western Canada Watch
B.C.âs orphan site restoration levy jumps to $24M/year, hiking direct costs for oil and gas permit holders. Regulatory cost creep will hit EBITDA and drag multiples for asset-heavy operatorsâbake it into your model or risk a haircut at exit. Read more
International Lithiumâs option on Karibib advances via a secured loanâno disclosed price, but creative, milestone-based structures are now standard in battery metals. Staged deals preserve cash but can complicate exits. Read more
Prime Minister Carneyâs push to double non-U.S. exports flags new incentives and trade missions for Western Canadian ag, tech, and resources. Policy-driven capital and buyer interest could reset valuation narrativesâwatch for Asia-Pacific moves. Read more. Sector-level diplomacy often precedes private capital flowsâtrack policy shifts for early signals. Read more
Takeaway: Regulatory costs, creative mining structures, and policy tailwinds are all in play. If youâre prepping for a transaction, factor in new cost headwinds and cross-border buyer appetite.
đ Surf, Turf and Arctic
Health P.E.I. reports early wins from recruitment and service investmentsâno deal terms, but operational scaling often precedes capital raises or M&A in health services. If youâre people-heavy, margin resilience starts with talent. Read more
Cape Breton Regional Hospitalâs redevelopment is on trackâno budget or partner details, but public builds like this set the stage for future RFPs and JV opportunities in health infrastructure. Read more
Bonne Bay Pharmacyâs closure signals margin pressure and succession risk in rural health retail. If youâre eyeing consolidation, watch for distressed asset buys and customer list deals. Read more
Halifaxâs EcoPilot is landing Crombie REIT and other commercial clients with AI-powered energy management. No deal values, but institutional wins in proptech and cleantech are driving up multiplesâespecially as ESG mandates tighten. Read more
đ Cross-Border Connections
MKB Equityâs growth investment in IEC Holden (precision motors for electrified transport) shows PE is betting on supply chain players fueling the energy transition. Benchmark your margin and customer mix if youâre in manufacturing. Read more
Aliefâs âThe Activistâ sells North American rights to TLA Releasing and HBO Max (Baltics)âinternational buyers are still paying for Canadian IP. If youâre in media or tech, benchmark your cross-border licensing strategy. Read more
Owners: PE and international buyers are chasing Canadian firms with scale in electrification, energy, and IP-rich sectors. Benchmark margins, customer concentration, and export readinessâthese levers swing multiples and drive inbound.
đ§ Deal Highlights Across Canada
Cenovus wins MEG Energy for $8.6B after a heated bidding warâstrategic buyers are still paying up for scale and margin in oil sands. Read more
Untether AI files for bankruptcy after AMD acquihireâ$128M owed. Even deep-tech with big-name backers isnât immune to capital structure risk. Know your burn and customer concentration. Read more
WonderFiâs sale to Robinhood delayed to 2026âcross-border exits are taking longer, with regulatory drag now the norm. Read more
Scale and margin resilience still win premium valuations, but capital discipline and regulatory readiness are non-negotiable. If you want to control your outcome, prep your numbersâand your storyâbefore the market writes it for you.