📈 Canada Deal Flow News – 2025-10-27

Big-ticket deals and cross-border moves are setting new valuation benchmarks—founders, it’s time to recalibrate.

🇨🇦 National Deal Watch

ATCO Structures just locked in a $179M contract to build worker housing for Idaho’s Stibnite mine—a multi-year U.S. revenue win that will juice future EBITDA and reset what buyers will pay for industrial services and modular construction plays. Read more

Parkland’s Q3 EBITDA hit $540M, with the Sunoco acquisition closing in days. Scale, cash flow, and U.S. expansion are still king—buyers are rewarding platforms that deliver on both. Read more

Cenovus hikes its MEG Energy bid (undisclosed premium), locking in Strathcona’s support and offloading Vawn thermal assets in a side deal. This is textbook: competitive tension and asset swaps drive up exits and keep everyone at the table. Read more Read more

Paytrie spinout Loon lands $3M to take over CADC stablecoin issuance. Small round, but it plants Loon at the center of Canada’s digital asset rails—proof that focused spinouts can punch above their weight in regulated niches. Read more

🍁 Ontario & Québec Investments

Petal Health teams with Shoppers Drug Mart to roll out care across 1,700+ pharmacies—no deal size, but instant national scale and recurring revenue potential. Watch for follow-on funding or M&A as Petal’s footprint grows. Read more

Electra Battery Materials advances Idaho cobalt-copper modeling and feedstock integration—no new capital yet, but this is a classic “pre-money” milestone that sets up the next raise or partnership. Read more

TECHNATION taps ex-McKinsey partner Kevin d’Entremont as CEO. Not a direct deal, but leadership shifts at sector groups often foreshadow new advocacy, programming, or partnership opportunities—founders, stay close. Read more

🌲 Western Canada Watch

ATCO’s $179M U.S. contract signals Western Canadian industrials can land major cross-border wins—if you’re in build, supply, or logistics, this is your comp for revenue visibility and scale. Read more

Helium Evolution’s $8.3M note conversion to equity resets its balance sheet and signals confidence from ENEOS Xplora. If you’re holding convertibles, watch how these moves can boost negotiating leverage and clean up optics for future raises. Read more

BC’s orphan site restoration levy jumps to $24M/year, squeezing margins for energy permit holders. Regulatory costs are now a real swing factor in Western Canadian valuations—factor them in before your next diligence cycle. Read more

Metro Vancouver home prices have surged 326% in 30 years, driven by population outpacing supply. For asset-heavy operators, this is a hard comp: scarcity and location still rule multiples. Read more

Takeaway:
Big U.S. contracts, capital structure resets, and regulatory cost spikes are all moving the valuation needle. Is your balance sheet clean, and are your margins insulated from policy shocks?

🌐 Cross-Border Connections

Dawson Partners just scooped up a $1B Asia PE portfolio from the Hong Kong Jockey Club—Canadian buyers are writing big cheques for global secondaries, setting price floors and offering new liquidity options for mature assets. Read more

Canada’s government is doubling down on ASEAN trade, targeting energy, minerals, tech, and manufacturing. Founders with cross-border ambitions: expect more government support and a likely uptick in M&A and JV activity in Southeast Asia. Read more

Canadian crude exports by rail hit a 2025 high—energy exporters are diversifying routes as U.S. protectionism bites. Export flexibility is now a valuation lever; how diversified is your customer base? Read more

Vista Equity’s $3B majority buy-in to Nexthink puts a fresh comp on high-growth SaaS: strategic capital is still chasing sticky, AI-powered platforms at premium multiples. If you’re scaling in enterprise software, this is your new bar. Read more

Canada and Malaysia sign an LOI to deepen investment in LNG and critical minerals—no dollar figure, but Ottawa is clearly teeing up new cross-border capital flows and joint ventures in energy and mining. Read more

Canada-Vietnam trade tops $15B annually, with fresh focus on energy, aerospace, and minerals. No deal specifics, but sector signals are strong—if you’re in the mix, prep your export pitch. Read more

Bottom line:
Competitive bids, capital structure resets, and strategic alliances are moving valuations now—not next quarter. If you’re not shaping your own comps and narrative, someone else will.