Canada Deal Flow News – 2025-10-25
Capital flows, policy shocks, and activist moves—founders, today’s comps are moving targets.
🇨🇦 National Deal Watch
Retail sales rebounded 1% in August to $70.4B, but September is set to slip 0.7%. Don’t let a single-month pop fool you—buyers want margin resilience, not just a headline. Read more
More details after we mentioned it yesterday: G Mining green-lit a $973M Guyana gold mine after locking permits and financing. For resource founders, it’s a direct comp: regulatory clarity and financing readiness unlock big-ticket valuations. Read more
MultiBank Group and Khabib Nurmagomedov’s multi-billion-dollar JV is building a regulated, tokenized sports ecosystem. Canadian fintech and sports-tech founders: institutional money is raising the bar for scale and compliance. Read more
Neo Financial just landed a rare three-peat on Deloitte’s Technology Fast 50, with 2,623% average three-year growth among winners. If your fintech is scaling like this, you’re in premium-multiple territory—time your next raise or exit accordingly.
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🍁 Ontario & Québec Investments
Ontario manufacturers face 25% U.S. auto tariffs for at least another year, with broader trade talks off the table. Buyers will discount for tariff risk and push for earnouts—be ready to defend your margins. Read more
Ontario spots betting firm Rivalry Corp. closed another private placement tranche and restructured debt—classic prelude to aggressive growth or shoring up runway. If you’re in a capital-intensive vertical, get ahead of your balance sheet before you’re forced to. Read more
Canada’s EV ambitions are stalling on infrastructure and scale—no new deals, but supply chain and battery tech founders should brace for a longer runway and possible policy sweeteners. Read more
Canada’s federal government is accelerating nation-building projects that drive clean growth, including a $2 billion federal and $1 billion provincial investment in Ontario’s Darlington New Nuclear Project. The initiative will make Canada the first G7 nation to deploy small modular reactors, creating thousands of jobs and powering 300,000 homes with clean, reliable energy. Read more
🌲 Western Canada Watch
A B.C. billionaire just lost her court fight for Hudson’s Bay properties, spotlighting the legal minefield around legacy retail real estate. If you’re holding urban assets, court outcomes can swing your leverage and exit timing. Read more
True North Carbon’s Tamarack project hit “first capture” in Alberta—no deal value, but U.S. capital is backing Canadian carbon tech. Expect follow-on funding, offtakes, or M&A as this scales. Read more
🌊 Surf, Turf and Arctic
Holy Whale Brewing scooped up Upstreet’s IP and equipment in Charlottetown after a summer shutdown. No price disclosed, but it’s a classic distressed asset sale—brand and kit still hold value for regional expansion. Read more
Nova Scotia and Ontario inked an MOU on small modular reactors—no capital yet, but early alignment with government priorities can open doors to non-dilutive funding and strategic partnerships. Read more
$5.4M in federal grants is flooding into 28 Indigenous-led forestry projects across the Prairies, signaling Ottawa’s intent to scale up wood-based construction and Indigenous ownership. Expect more competition, JV opportunities, and future M&A as these ventures mature. Read more
🌐 Cross-Border Connections
Talisker Resources closed the first tranche of a “bought deal” private placement for C$18.3M—underwriters guaranteed the raise, signalling strong institutional appetite. Track the dilution and implied valuation; these set the bar for resource sector raises. Read more
Starboard Value is pressing Fluor to unlock value from its 39% NuScale Power stake. Even as a U.S. play, it’s a wake-up call: minority stakes and IP can swing valuations—know your non-core assets before activists do. Read more
U.S. abruptly killed all trade talks with Canada over a Reagan TV ad. Political risk can spook buyers and cloud valuations—stress-test your revenue mix and prep for volatility. Read more
CBSA’s probe into dumped Chinese truck bodies could mean tariffs and margin relief for Canadian manufacturers—regulatory shifts like this can move EBITDA and multiples overnight. Read more
JPMorgan is hiring a managing director to launch its “innovation economy” banking arm in Canada. U.S. capital is coming for Canadian tech—expect new debt, treasury, and M&A options, and more leverage in negotiations. Read more
Follow the money—recent raises and cross-border milestones are the best real-time comps for buyer appetite. But political shocks can swing deal terms overnight.
🧭 Deal Highlights Across Canada
ConvergX landed $2M in federal funding plus backing from Boeing and Calgary’s Opportunity Fund. Public and private capital is still flowing for dual-use and advanced manufacturing plays. Read more
TSXV-listed Xali Gold is acquiring the Pico Machay Gold Project in Peru—no price yet, but cross-border resource deals can reset valuation narratives and attract new investors. Read more
Capital is moving—via restructurings, global banks, and government bets. Is your capital stack ready for the next raise, and are you steering the valuation story before someone else does?